ABSTRACT
Objective:To analyze the risk factors of short-term recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated by transcatheter arterial chemoembolization combined with radiofrequency ablation (TACE-RFA), and to predict the short-term recurrence rate by establishing a nomogram model.Methods:The clinical data of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with TACE-RFA at the PLA General Hospital from January 2010 to December 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. Of 125 patients who were included, there were 103 males and 22 females, aged (56.6±8.9) years old. Based on whether tumors had recurred within 12 months after treatment, the patients were divided into two groups: the recurrent group ( n=86) and the non-recurrent group ( n=39). The baseline conditions, tumor characteristics and preoperative laboratory examination resultss were collected and the patients were followed-up by outpatient reexaminations. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to study the risk factors of short-term recurrence. C-index, correction model and ROC curve were used to evaluate the model. Results:Multivariate logistics regression analysis showed that the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) >1.25 ( OR=2.87, P=0.048), albumin-γ-glutamyltransferase ratio (AGR)≤0.3 ( OR=3.40, P=0.043), incomplete tumor encapsulation ( OR=3.81, P=0.007) and maximum tumor diameter ( OR=1.98, P=0.003) were independent risk factors for short-term recurrence after TACE-RFA. Applying the above factors to construct the nomograph, the C-index was 0.767, the area under the curve was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.67-0.85), and the calibration curve had a good consistency. Conclusion:NLR>1.25, AGR≤0.3, incomplete tumor encapsulation and tumor maximum diameter were risk factors of short-term recurrence after TACE-RFA in patients with HCC. The nomogram model based on the above factors was of good value in predicting short-term recurrence after TACE-RFA.